Labour face being killed off in huge sign Left vote is split beyond repair

Is Zack Polanski's Green Party already splitting the left-wing vote and killing off Labour? That is the implication of YouGov's latest poll which gives Reform UK a 10-point lead, up from a previous six. Between the two YouGov polls - just a week apart - Reform was up one while Labour was down by three. The Greens? Up by one point and pushing the Lib Dems into fourth place. This mirrors other polls. Lord Ashcroft Polls, for instance, recently gave Reform a nine-point lead, up from an earlier five.

While Lord Ashcroft polls previously had Labour on 22 and the Greens on 13, its latest poll had Labour on 19 and the Greens on 17. Other polls have found a similar trend. Just wait until Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party comes on the scene as well! Still - as evidenced by the recent Senedd by-election - tactical voting could well deprive Reform of victory. Perhaps that is why former Tory PM Sir John Major warned forming an alliance with Reform would "destroy" his party.

From Sir John's perspective, the Tories would do well not to ape Reform, presumably lest they drive some voters to the Lib Dems, a trend already well underway.

To be fair, Reform needs to ensure it captures enough of the centre ground to protect itself from tactical voting. Frankly, its jump in the polls suggests that process is underway, certainly when coupling the Reform vote with what is left of the Tory base.

More immediately for PM Sir Keir Starmer however is the risk that the Greens (and Corbyn) begin to pull voters from Labour and let Reform in through the middle.

This seems like more of a danger than Reform and the Tories fighting over the patriotic Brexit vote, as well as fighting over old Labour voters who backed Boris Johnson in 2019.

Zack Polanski should be careful what he wishes for. In wanting to become the torchbearer of the Left, his Green Party risks giving Nigel Farage a very clear run to power.

Sir Keir needs that problem like a hole in the head!